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By Jonathan Caulkins

Within the conflict on medications, young ones are at the entrance traces. is simply announcing no security adequate? The authors study the result of well known university drug prevention courses to figure out how powerful they're at decreasing cocaine use and no matter if those courses are funds good spent, compared to drug-enforcement or drug-treatment courses.

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Sample text

We theorize that social influence is inversely related to the number of heavy users, who offer examples of the ill effects of a drug. 9. ". Page xxv Market Multiplier Another way a prevention program affects consumption by nonparticipants is through the cocaine market. Reduced consumption by program participants implies a reduction in the demand for cocaine. For any given level of enforcement, decreasing the demand for cocaine increases the amount of enforcement relative to the amount of use. This increase in enforcement pressure will tend to drive up cocaine's price.

RAND's Drug Policy Research Center examines drug use trends and assesses control strategies for various sponsors and draws on core support from The Ford Foundation to sustain drug-research-related databases and to ensure broad dissemination of results. Additional support was provided by Carnegie Mellon University and by RAND's Drug Policy Research Center with funding from The Ford Foundation. Page ix Contents Preface vii Figures xiii Tables xv Summary xix Acknowledgments xxxiii Chapter One Introduction 1 An Analysis of Costs and Effectiveness 2 Beyond Cost-Effectiveness 5 An Issue Not Yet Examined 6 Our Focus 7 Chapter Two Effectiveness at Reducing Cocaine Consumption 11 Effect on Cohort Members Participating in Program 12 Proportion of Cohort That Would Otherwise Use Cocaine 13 Lifetime Consumption 15 Program Effect 17 Discount Factor 28 Summary 31 Multipliers 31 Social Multiplier 31 Market Multiplier 34 Qualifiers 35 Page x Integrating the Factors 37 Uncertainty 39 Sources of Effect 42 Chapter Three Cost-Effectiveness at Reducing Cocaine Consumption 45 Defining Program Cost 45 Estimating Program Cost 49 Estimating Cost-Effectiveness and the Implications of Uncertainty 51 Variation With the Passage of Time 56 Chapter Four Other Benefits 59 Estimating the Effect on Use of Drugs Other Than Cocaine 59 Simple Program Effectiveness 60 Other Factors 64 Comparison of Effects 65 Social Savings from Reduced Drug Use 68 Cocaine 69 Other Drugs 70 Benefits Unrelated to Reduced Drug Consumption 71 Chapter Five Nationwide Implementation 73 Implications for the Current Cocaine Epidemic 74 Implications for Future Epidemics 75 Implications for the Legalization Debate 78 Chapter Six Conclusions and Policy Implications 81 Model Prevention Programs Appear to Be Competitive With Enforcement 81 Great Uncertainty Remains About Prevention's Cost-Effectiveness 82 The Source of Benefits Is Not What Might Be Expected 83 Drug Use Prevention Has Benefits Other Than Reduced Cocaine Use 84 A National Program Is Affordable but Will Not End the Cocaine Epidemic 84 Page xi Drug Prevention Should Be Conducted Before It Is Perceived Necessary 85 Prevention Cannot Substitute for Enforcement in a Legalization Regime 86 The Bottom Line 86 Appendix A.

The "best" estimate is the one we prefer, and the low and high estimates bracket a range across which reasonable persons might disagree. That is, while we believe the scientific evidence most strongly supports the ''best" estimate, some evidence supports all numbers in the range. In deference to that, we typically refer to our "best" estimates as "baseline" or "base" or "middle" estimates. We carry all estimates through the entire analysis. We hope that in structuring the analysis the way we have, the sources of uncertainty are obvious and their effect on the bottom line transparent.

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